Statizoid

Heat deaths vs projected death rates by country

Countries reporting
236
Highest
2,924
Hong Kong
Lowest
185.5
Qatar
Median
1,178
Years covered
61
2030–2090
Data points
14,396

What the numbers show

Heat deaths vs projected death rates is currently reported for 236 countries. The highest value is 2,924 in Hong Kong; the lowest is 185.5 in Qatar.

The median across all reporting countries is 1,178, and the mean is 1,221.

The gap between the highest and lowest reporting country is a factor of about 16.

Over the past decade 157 countries rose and 78 fell. The largest increase was in United Arab Emirates (up 59.0%), and the largest decrease in Saint Martin (French Part) (down 20.9%).

Heat deaths vs projected death rates: full country ranking

#Country LatestYear 10-year changeTrend
1 Hong Kong 2,924 2090 up 6.7% rising
2 Puerto Rico 2,519 2090 up 15.4% rising
3 Jamaica 2,308 2090 up 2.0% rising
4 Macao 2,233 2090 down 0.5% rising
5 Ukraine 2,126 2090 down 0.2% rising
6 Albania 2,085 2090 up 7.9% rising
7 South Korea 2,072 2090 up 2.0% rising
8 Mauritius 2,032 2090 up 5.0% rising
9 China 2,029 2090 up 2.0% rising
10 Singapore 1,924 2090 up 16.0% rising
11 Taiwan 1,916 2090 down 6.0% rising
12 Lithuania 1,909 2090 unchanged rising
13 Andorra 1,824 2090 up 0.7% rising
14 Saint Pierre and Miquelon 1,818 2090 up 1.5% rising
15 Saint Lucia 1,807 2090 down 0.5% rising
16 Chile 1,755 2090 up 8.7% rising
17 Malta 1,737 2090 down 1.4% rising
18 Grenada 1,727 2090 up 2.8% rising
19 Curacao 1,726 2090 up 5.3% rising
20 North Macedonia 1,700 2090 down 0.4% rising
21 Cuba 1,696 2090 up 2.1% rising
22 Poland 1,693 2090 down 9.2% rising
23 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1,689 2090 down 4.5% rising
24 Belarus 1,674 2090 down 7.6% rising
25 Anguilla 1,666 2090 up 6.8% rising
26 Trinidad and Tobago 1,638 2090 down 4.4% rising
27 Costa Rica 1,632 2090 up 7.6% rising
28 Uruguay 1,631 2090 up 8.9% rising
29 Saint Kitts and Nevis 1,623 2090 down 2.0% rising
30 British Virgin Islands 1,597 2090 down 6.0% rising
31 Latvia 1,593 2090 down 6.7% rising
32 French Polynesia 1,588 2090 up 4.4% rising
33 Thailand 1,582 2090 up 0.4% rising
34 Turkey 1,582 2090 up 7.1% rising
35 Cape Verde 1,578 2090 up 9.1% rising
36 Maldives 1,560 2090 down 10.8% volatile
37 Antigua and Barbuda 1,555 2090 up 3.9% rising
38 El Salvador 1,537 2090 up 11.2% rising
39 Bermuda 1,537 2090 down 3.8% rising
40 Bhutan 1,531 2090 up 3.0% rising
41 Croatia 1,529 2090 down 1.7% rising
42 Palau 1,529 2090 down 1.0% flat
43 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 1,524 2090 up 3.5% rising
44 Montenegro 1,522 2090 down 0.3% rising
45 Dominica 1,509 2090 down 0.5% rising
46 Wallis and Futuna 1,508 2090 up 12.1% rising
47 Colombia 1,505 2090 up 8.2% rising
48 Serbia 1,502 2090 down 4.1% flat
49 Brazil 1,496 2090 up 1.9% rising
50 Moldova 1,492 2090 down 4.3% flat
51 Saint Barthelemy 1,471 2090 up 17.8% rising
52 Saint Helena 1,469 2090 down 3.8% falling
53 Armenia 1,466 2090 down 9.4% rising
54 North Korea 1,462 2090 down 0.5% rising
55 Argentina 1,462 2090 up 8.1% rising
56 Philippines 1,456 2090 up 7.6% rising
57 Barbados 1,453 2090 up 2.9% rising
58 Greenland 1,447 2090 down 5.8% rising
59 Bonaire Sint Eustatius and Saba 1,446 2090 down 0.9% rising
60 Slovakia 1,433 2090 down 10.4% rising
61 Aruba 1,424 2090 up 4.6% flat
62 Bulgaria 1,422 2090 down 10.2% falling
63 Romania 1,419 2090 down 5.0% flat
64 Estonia 1,416 2090 down 10.1% rising
65 Turks and Caicos Islands 1,416 2090 down 4.0% rising
66 Belize 1,415 2090 up 9.8% rising
67 Italy 1,408 2090 down 3.8% rising
68 Eswatini 1,406 2090 up 7.2% rising
69 Sint Maarten (Dutch part) 1,405 2090 up 6.7% rising
70 Isle of Man 1,398 2090 up 1.5% rising
71 Myanmar 1,398 2090 up 1.5% rising
72 Montserrat 1,382 2090 down 5.1% flat
73 Iran 1,361 2090 down 6.6% rising
74 Bahamas 1,358 2090 up 0.9% rising
75 Iceland 1,358 2090 up 3.3% rising
76 South Sudan 1,347 2090 up 10.3% rising
77 Fiji 1,339 2090 up 4.2% rising
78 Seychelles 1,333 2090 down 8.4% rising
79 India 1,332 2090 up 7.0% rising
80 Nepal 1,326 2090 up 12.3% rising
81 Cyprus 1,325 2090 down 9.3% rising
82 Ecuador 1,324 2090 up 9.7% rising
83 Greece 1,321 2090 down 7.3% rising
84 Mexico 1,312 2090 up 8.5% rising
85 Georgia 1,310 2090 down 1.9% rising
86 Vietnam 1,306 2090 down 1.7% rising
87 Nigeria 1,301 2090 up 9.1% rising
88 Haiti 1,297 2090 up 4.4% rising
89 Falkland Islands 1,295 2090 down 17.4% rising
90 Japan 1,294 2090 down 8.5% flat
91 Spain 1,290 2090 down 10.1% rising
92 Tunisia 1,287 2090 up 0.9% rising
93 Dominican Republic 1,287 2090 up 6.6% rising
94 East Timor 1,287 2090 up 13.4% rising
95 Indonesia 1,286 2090 up 3.9% rising
96 Guernsey 1,277 2090 down 1.4% rising
97 Finland 1,271 2090 down 2.5% rising
98 Brunei 1,268 2090 down 3.1% rising
99 Austria 1,266 2090 down 6.7% rising
100 Laos 1,260 2090 up 7.0% rising
101 Sri Lanka 1,250 2090 up 6.4% rising
102 Malaysia 1,250 2090 up 5.2% rising
103 Venezuela 1,244 2090 up 12.2% rising
104 Azerbaijan 1,241 2090 down 3.7% rising
105 Morocco 1,240 2090 up 5.8% rising
106 Peru 1,235 2090 up 7.8% rising
107 Netherlands 1,235 2090 up 4.6% rising
108 Lesotho 1,227 2090 up 4.5% rising
109 Guyana 1,225 2090 up 6.5% rising
109 Hungary 1,225 2090 down 6.0% falling
111 Luxembourg 1,220 2090 down 2.6% rising
112 Norway 1,212 2090 down 0.1% rising
113 Micronesia (country) 1,203 2090 up 7.2% rising
114 Guatemala 1,202 2090 up 11.2% rising
115 Sierra Leone 1,199 2090 up 9.5% rising
116 Suriname 1,195 2090 up 7.6% rising
117 Marshall Islands 1,179 2090 up 36.5% flat
118 Denmark 1,179 2090 up 4.9% rising
119 Slovenia 1,176 2090 down 11.0% rising
120 Russia 1,176 2090 down 10.1% falling
121 Nicaragua 1,175 2090 up 8.6% rising
122 Martinique 1,174 2090 down 4.5% falling
123 Guadeloupe 1,173 2090 down 1.7% falling
124 Turkmenistan 1,169 2090 up 2.3% rising
125 Czechia 1,169 2090 down 10.9% flat
126 Germany 1,164 2090 down 8.9% falling
127 Belgium 1,160 2090 down 2.7% rising
128 Bolivia 1,159 2090 up 4.6% rising
129 United States Virgin Islands 1,158 2090 down 0.3% falling
130 Jersey 1,155 2090 down 5.2% flat
131 Bangladesh 1,153 2090 up 13.0% rising
132 South Africa 1,152 2090 down 1.0% rising
133 Botswana 1,150 2090 up 4.0% rising
134 American Samoa 1,150 2090 up 8.7% rising
135 Burkina Faso 1,142 2090 up 12.0% rising
136 United Kingdom 1,134 2090 up 0.9% rising
137 Gibraltar 1,132 2090 up 5.3% rising
138 New Caledonia 1,128 2090 up 1.6% rising
139 Papua New Guinea 1,127 2090 up 4.6% rising
140 Cambodia 1,125 2090 up 4.0% rising
141 Guinea 1,123 2090 up 8.8% rising
142 Ireland 1,122 2090 down 1.7% rising
143 Syria 1,122 2090 up 15.3% rising
144 Kenya 1,119 2090 up 7.9% rising
145 Nauru 1,118 2090 up 8.4% rising
146 New Zealand 1,116 2090 down 0.8% rising
147 Portugal 1,112 2090 down 7.7% falling
148 Sweden 1,109 2090 down 2.7% rising
149 Tokelau 1,108 2090 up 14.5% rising
150 Djibouti 1,107 2090 up 4.1% rising
151 Lebanon 1,106 2090 up 14.4% rising
152 Switzerland 1,104 2090 down 9.6% rising
153 Western Sahara 1,102 2090 down 1.3% rising
154 Paraguay 1,098 2090 up 3.5% rising
155 Liberia 1,097 2090 up 10.2% rising
156 Libya 1,084 2090 up 7.5% rising
157 Canada 1,083 2090 up 0.0% rising
158 San Marino 1,081 2090 down 6.6% rising
159 Niue 1,076 2090 up 12.2% falling
160 Kiribati 1,076 2090 up 5.3% rising
161 Cayman Islands 1,076 2090 down 6.1% rising
162 Panama 1,074 2090 up 7.1% rising
163 Chad 1,071 2090 up 6.5% flat
164 Guinea-Bissau 1,070 2090 up 9.3% rising
165 United States 1,069 2090 down 1.4% rising
166 Liechtenstein 1,058 2090 down 2.5% rising
167 Honduras 1,052 2090 up 8.4% rising
168 Namibia 1,046 2090 up 6.2% rising
169 Faroe Islands 1,044 2090 up 5.2% rising
170 Gambia 1,044 2090 up 12.3% rising
171 Reunion 1,035 2090 down 0.9% rising
172 France 1,016 2090 down 3.1% flat
173 Benin 1,002 2090 up 8.0% rising
174 Somalia 987.7 2090 up 8.9% rising
175 Ghana 986.1 2090 up 6.9% rising
176 Tuvalu 985 2090 up 9.2% falling
177 Guam 946.2 2090 up 4.9% rising
178 Egypt 946 2090 up 8.0% rising
179 Pakistan 944.5 2090 up 9.1% rising
180 Algeria 943.1 2090 up 0.3% rising
181 Northern Mariana Islands 939.6 2090 up 3.6% flat
182 Kyrgyzstan 938.9 2090 up 5.1% rising
183 Cook Islands 937.6 2090 down 6.2% falling
184 Burundi 929.4 2090 up 12.9% rising
185 Madagascar 920.6 2090 up 6.3% rising
186 Australia 906.6 2090 down 4.0% rising
187 Iraq 898.9 2090 up 10.7% rising
188 Niger 887.5 2090 up 14.7% rising
189 Central African Republic 887.2 2090 up 12.5% rising
190 Tajikistan 887 2090 up 8.0% rising
191 Mali 878 2090 up 13.1% rising
192 Togo 875 2090 up 8.6% rising
193 Zimbabwe 874.6 2090 up 11.8% rising
194 Mozambique 869.7 2090 up 12.3% rising
195 Cote d'Ivoire 864.4 2090 up 7.1% rising
196 Solomon Islands 863.9 2090 up 10.8% rising
197 Equatorial Guinea 863.6 2090 up 8.2% rising
198 Rwanda 860.6 2090 up 10.0% rising
199 Malawi 856.3 2090 up 10.7% rising
200 Uganda 853.6 2090 up 15.8% rising
201 Mongolia 847.3 2090 up 0.6% rising
202 Jordan 842.7 2090 up 9.5% rising
203 Sudan 841.3 2090 up 7.3% rising
204 Senegal 835.5 2090 up 9.8% rising
205 Tonga 834.5 2090 up 19.1% rising
206 Comoros 827.3 2090 up 9.3% rising
207 Kazakhstan 825.8 2090 down 1.8% rising
208 Democratic Republic of Congo 821.4 2090 up 10.3% rising
209 Eritrea 821.1 2090 up 15.6% rising
210 Afghanistan 812.4 2090 up 11.9% rising
211 Yemen 809.4 2090 up 10.5% rising
212 Zambia 809.3 2090 up 9.0% rising
213 Vatican 800.5 2090 up 6.7% falling
214 Sao Tome and Principe 793.5 2090 up 13.6% rising
215 Cameroon 786.1 2090 up 8.6% rising
216 Uzbekistan 782.5 2090 down 1.8% rising
217 Palestine 774.2 2090 up 15.5% rising
218 Monaco 772.3 2090 down 2.8% falling
219 Congo 759.5 2090 up 9.5% rising
220 Gabon 750.6 2090 up 5.5% rising
221 Ethiopia 744.3 2090 up 11.2% rising
222 Angola 740.2 2090 up 10.6% rising
223 Samoa 708.7 2090 up 14.7% flat
224 Vanuatu 695.7 2090 up 7.4% rising
225 Israel 665.9 2090 up 3.8% rising
226 Tanzania 658.6 2090 up 8.4% rising
227 Mauritania 653 2090 up 12.2% rising
228 Saint Martin (French Part) 643.3 2090 down 20.9% falling
229 French Guiana 639.8 2090 up 6.7% rising
230 Saudi Arabia 483.6 2090 up 2.0% rising
231 Bahrain 476.9 2090 up 5.3% rising
232 Mayotte 441.2 2090 up 9.6% rising
233 Oman 429.2 2090 up 3.3% rising
234 United Arab Emirates 308.9 2090 up 59.0% rising
235 Kuwait 287.2 2090 up 7.9% rising
236 Qatar 185.5 2090 up 14.5% rising

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Heat deaths vs projected death rates by country. Statizoid, drawing on Our World in Data. Retrieved 10 November 2026, from https://health.statizoid.com/stat/heat-deaths-vs-projected-death-rates/

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About this data

Indicator
Heat deaths vs projected death rates
Source
Our World in Data
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (Our World in Data)
Coverage
236 places, 14,396 data points, 2030–2090
Last refreshed