Statizoid

Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates by country

The number of deaths in a year per 1,000 people in the population. Future projections are based on the UN's medium scenario.

Countries reporting
229
Highest
2,924 deaths per 1,000 people
Hong Kong
Lowest
185.5 deaths per 1,000 people
Qatar
Median
1,179 deaths per 1,000 people
Years covered
61
2030–2090
Data points
14,396

What the numbers show

Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates is currently reported for 229 countries. The highest value is 2,924 deaths per 1,000 people in Hong Kong; the lowest is 185.5 deaths per 1,000 people in Qatar.

The median across all reporting countries is 1,179 deaths per 1,000 people, and the mean is 1,223 deaths per 1,000 people.

The gap between the highest and lowest reporting country is a factor of about 16.

Over the past decade 156 countries rose and 72 fell. The largest increase was in United Arab Emirates (up 59.0%), and the largest decrease in Saint Martin (French part) (down 20.9%).

Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates: full country ranking

#Country LatestYear 10-year changeTrend
1 Hong Kong 2,924 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 6.7% rising
2 Puerto Rico 2,519 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 15.4% rising
3 Jamaica 2,308 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 2.0% rising
4 Macao 2,233 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 0.5% rising
5 Ukraine 2,126 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 0.2% rising
6 Albania 2,085 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.9% rising
7 South Korea 2,072 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 2.0% rising
8 Mauritius 2,032 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 5.0% rising
9 China 2,029 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 2.0% rising
10 Singapore 1,924 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 16.0% rising
11 Taiwan 1,916 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 6.0% rising
12 Lithuania 1,909 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 unchanged rising
13 Andorra 1,824 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 0.7% rising
14 Saint Pierre and Miquelon 1,818 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 1.5% rising
15 Saint Lucia 1,807 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 0.5% rising
16 Chile 1,755 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.7% rising
18 Grenada 1,727 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 2.8% rising
19 Curacao 1,726 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 5.3% rising
20 North Macedonia 1,700 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 0.4% rising
21 Cuba 1,696 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 2.1% rising
22 Poland 1,693 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 9.2% rising
23 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1,689 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 4.5% rising
24 Belarus 1,674 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 7.6% rising
25 Anguilla 1,666 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 6.8% rising
26 Trinidad and Tobago 1,638 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 4.4% rising
27 Costa Rica 1,632 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.6% rising
28 Uruguay 1,631 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.9% rising
29 Saint Kitts and Nevis 1,623 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 2.0% rising
30 British Virgin Islands 1,597 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 6.0% rising
31 Latvia 1,593 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 6.7% rising
32 French Polynesia 1,588 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 4.4% rising
33 Thailand 1,582 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 0.4% rising
34 Turkey 1,582 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.1% rising
35 Cape Verde 1,578 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 9.1% rising
36 Maldives 1,560 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 10.8% volatile
37 Antigua and Barbuda 1,555 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 3.9% rising
38 El Salvador 1,537 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 11.2% rising
39 Bermuda 1,537 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 3.8% rising
40 Bhutan 1,531 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 3.0% rising
41 Croatia 1,529 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 1.7% rising
42 Palau 1,529 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 1.0% flat
43 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 1,524 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 3.5% rising
44 Montenegro 1,522 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 0.3% rising
45 Dominica 1,509 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 0.5% rising
46 Wallis and Futuna 1,508 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 12.1% rising
47 Colombia 1,505 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.2% rising
48 Serbia 1,502 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 4.1% flat
49 Brazil 1,496 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 1.9% rising
50 Moldova 1,492 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 4.3% flat
51 Saint Barthelemy 1,471 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 17.8% rising
52 Saint Helena 1,469 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 3.8% falling
53 Armenia 1,466 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 9.4% rising
54 North Korea 1,462 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 0.5% rising
55 Argentina 1,462 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.1% rising
56 Philippines 1,456 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.6% rising
57 Barbados 1,453 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 2.9% rising
58 Greenland 1,447 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 5.8% rising
59 Bonaire Sint Eustatius and Saba 1,446 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 0.9% rising
60 Slovakia 1,433 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 10.4% rising
61 Aruba 1,424 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 4.6% flat
62 Bulgaria 1,422 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 10.2% falling
63 Romania 1,419 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 5.0% flat
64 Estonia 1,416 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 10.1% rising
65 Turks and Caicos Islands 1,416 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 4.0% rising
66 Belize 1,415 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 9.8% rising
67 Italy 1,408 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 3.8% rising
68 Eswatini 1,406 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.2% rising
69 Sint Maarten (Dutch part) 1,405 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 6.7% rising
70 Isle of Man 1,398 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 1.5% rising
71 Myanmar 1,398 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 1.5% rising
72 Montserrat 1,382 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 5.1% flat
73 Iran 1,361 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 6.6% rising
74 Bahamas 1,358 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 0.9% rising
75 Iceland 1,358 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 3.3% rising
76 South Sudan 1,347 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 10.3% rising
77 Fiji 1,339 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 4.2% rising
78 Seychelles 1,333 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 8.4% rising
79 India 1,332 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.0% rising
80 Nepal 1,326 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 12.3% rising
81 Cyprus 1,325 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 9.3% rising
82 Ecuador 1,324 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 9.7% rising
83 Greece 1,321 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 7.3% rising
84 Mexico 1,312 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.5% rising
85 Georgia 1,310 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 1.9% rising
86 Vietnam 1,306 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 1.7% rising
87 Nigeria 1,301 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 9.1% rising
88 Haiti 1,297 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 4.4% rising
89 Falkland Islands 1,295 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 17.4% rising
90 Japan 1,294 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 8.5% flat
91 Spain 1,290 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 10.1% rising
92 Tunisia 1,287 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 0.9% rising
93 Dominican Republic 1,287 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 6.6% rising
94 East Timor 1,287 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 13.4% rising
95 Indonesia 1,286 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 3.9% rising
96 Guernsey 1,277 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 1.4% rising
97 Finland 1,271 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 2.5% rising
98 Brunei 1,268 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 3.1% rising
99 Austria 1,266 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 6.7% rising
100 Laos 1,260 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.0% rising
101 Sri Lanka 1,250 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 6.4% rising
102 Malaysia 1,250 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 5.2% rising
103 Venezuela 1,244 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 12.2% rising
104 Azerbaijan 1,241 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 3.7% rising
105 Morocco 1,240 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 5.8% rising
106 Peru 1,235 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.8% rising
107 Netherlands 1,235 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 4.6% rising
108 Lesotho 1,227 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 4.5% rising
109 Guyana 1,225 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 6.5% rising
109 Hungary 1,225 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 6.0% falling
112 Norway 1,212 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 0.1% rising
113 Micronesia (country) 1,203 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.2% rising
114 Guatemala 1,202 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 11.2% rising
115 Sierra Leone 1,199 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 9.5% rising
116 Suriname 1,195 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.6% rising
117 Marshall Islands 1,179 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 36.5% flat
118 Denmark 1,179 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 4.9% rising
119 Slovenia 1,176 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 11.0% rising
120 Russia 1,176 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 10.1% falling
121 Nicaragua 1,175 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.6% rising
124 Turkmenistan 1,169 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 2.3% rising
125 Czechia 1,169 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 10.9% flat
126 Germany 1,164 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 8.9% falling
127 Belgium 1,160 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 2.7% rising
128 Bolivia 1,159 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 4.6% rising
129 United States Virgin Islands 1,158 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 0.3% falling
130 Jersey 1,155 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 5.2% flat
131 Bangladesh 1,153 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 13.0% rising
132 South Africa 1,152 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 1.0% rising
133 Botswana 1,150 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 4.0% rising
134 American Samoa 1,150 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.7% rising
135 Burkina Faso 1,142 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 12.0% rising
136 United Kingdom 1,134 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 0.9% rising
137 Gibraltar 1,132 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 5.3% rising
138 New Caledonia 1,128 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 1.6% rising
139 Papua New Guinea 1,127 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 4.6% rising
140 Cambodia 1,125 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 4.0% rising
141 Guinea 1,123 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.8% rising
143 Syria 1,122 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 15.3% rising
144 Kenya 1,119 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.9% rising
145 Nauru 1,118 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.4% rising
146 New Zealand 1,116 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 0.8% rising
147 Portugal 1,112 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 7.7% falling
148 Sweden 1,109 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 2.7% rising
149 Tokelau 1,108 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 14.5% rising
150 Djibouti 1,107 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 4.1% rising
151 Lebanon 1,106 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 14.4% rising
152 Switzerland 1,104 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 9.6% rising
153 Western Sahara 1,102 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 1.3% rising
154 Paraguay 1,098 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 3.5% rising
155 Liberia 1,097 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 10.2% rising
156 Libya 1,084 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.5% rising
157 Canada 1,083 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 0.0% rising
158 San Marino 1,081 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 6.6% rising
159 Niue 1,076 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 12.2% falling
160 Kiribati 1,076 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 5.3% rising
161 Cayman Islands 1,076 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 6.1% rising
162 Panama 1,074 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.1% rising
163 Chad 1,071 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 6.5% flat
164 Guinea-Bissau 1,070 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 9.3% rising
165 United States 1,069 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 1.4% rising
167 Honduras 1,052 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.4% rising
168 Namibia 1,046 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 6.2% rising
169 Faroe Islands 1,044 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 5.2% rising
170 Gambia 1,044 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 12.3% rising
171 Reunion 1,035 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 0.9% rising
172 France 1,016 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 3.1% flat
173 Benin 1,002 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.0% rising
174 Somalia 987.7 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.9% rising
175 Ghana 986.1 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 6.9% rising
176 Tuvalu 985 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 9.2% falling
177 Guam 946.2 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 4.9% rising
178 Egypt 946 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.0% rising
179 Pakistan 944.5 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 9.1% rising
180 Algeria 943.1 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 0.3% rising
181 Northern Mariana Islands 939.6 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 3.6% flat
182 Kyrgyzstan 938.9 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 5.1% rising
183 Cook Islands 937.6 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 6.2% falling
184 Burundi 929.4 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 12.9% rising
185 Madagascar 920.6 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 6.3% rising
186 Australia 906.6 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 4.0% rising
187 Iraq 898.9 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 10.7% rising
188 Niger 887.5 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 14.7% rising
189 Central African Republic 887.2 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 12.5% rising
190 Tajikistan 887 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.0% rising
191 Mali 878 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 13.1% rising
192 Togo 875 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.6% rising
193 Zimbabwe 874.6 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 11.8% rising
194 Mozambique 869.7 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 12.3% rising
195 Cote d'Ivoire 864.4 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.1% rising
196 Solomon Islands 863.9 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 10.8% rising
197 Equatorial Guinea 863.6 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.2% rising
198 Rwanda 860.6 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 10.0% rising
199 Malawi 856.3 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 10.7% rising
200 Uganda 853.6 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 15.8% rising
201 Mongolia 847.3 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 0.6% rising
202 Jordan 842.7 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 9.5% rising
203 Sudan 841.3 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.3% rising
204 Senegal 835.5 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 9.8% rising
205 Tonga 834.5 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 19.1% rising
206 Comoros 827.3 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 9.3% rising
207 Kazakhstan 825.8 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 1.8% rising
208 Democratic Republic of Congo 821.4 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 10.3% rising
209 Eritrea 821.1 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 15.6% rising
210 Afghanistan 812.4 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 11.9% rising
211 Yemen 809.4 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 10.5% rising
212 Zambia 809.3 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 9.0% rising
213 Vatican 800.5 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 6.7% falling
214 Sao Tome and Principe 793.5 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 13.6% rising
215 Cameroon 786.1 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.6% rising
216 Uzbekistan 782.5 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 1.8% rising
217 Palestine 774.2 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 15.5% rising
218 Monaco 772.3 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 2.8% falling
219 Congo 759.5 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 9.5% rising
220 Gabon 750.6 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 5.5% rising
221 Ethiopia 744.3 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 11.2% rising
222 Angola 740.2 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 10.6% rising
223 Samoa 708.7 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 14.7% flat
224 Vanuatu 695.7 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.4% rising
225 Israel 665.9 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 3.8% rising
226 Tanzania 658.6 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 8.4% rising
227 Mauritania 653 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 12.2% rising
228 Saint Martin (French part) 643.3 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 down 20.9% falling
229 French Guiana 639.8 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 6.7% rising
230 Saudi Arabia 483.6 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 2.0% rising
231 Bahrain 476.9 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 5.3% rising
233 Oman 429.2 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 3.3% rising
234 United Arab Emirates 308.9 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 59.0% rising
235 Kuwait 287.2 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 7.9% rising
236 Qatar 185.5 deaths per 1,000 people 2090 up 14.5% rising

About this data

Indicator
Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates
Unit
deaths per 1,000 people
Source
UN, World Population Prospects (2024) – processed by Our World in Data
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (Our World in Data)
Coverage
236 places, 14,396 data points, 2030–2090
Last refreshed

The number of deaths in a year per 1,000 people in the population. Future projections are based on the UN's medium scenario.