Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in China
China: Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates was 2,029 deaths per 1,000 people in 2090. ▲ Rising
Latest (2090)
2,029 deaths per 1,000 people
Change on year
down 0.1%
World rank
9th
of 236 countries
All-time high
2,037 deaths per 1,000 people
in 2085
All-time low
888 deaths per 1,000 people
in 2030
Years of data
61
2030–2090
Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in China, 2030–2090
Source: UN, World Population Prospects (2024) – processed by Our World in Data. Measured in deaths per 1,000 people.
Analysis
China recorded 2,029 deaths per 1,000 people for estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in 2090.
The figure is down 0.1% on the previous year and up 2.0% over ten years.
Over the whole period, estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in China peaked at 2,037 deaths per 1,000 people in 2085 and was at its lowest, 888 deaths per 1,000 people, in 2030.
That places China 9th out of 236 countries with data for 2090, putting it in the top 10%.
The long-run direction has been consistently rising across the 61 years of available data.
Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in China, year by year
| Year | deaths per 1,000 people | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 888 deaths per 1,000 people | — |
| 2031 | 908.8 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.3% |
| 2032 | 930.9 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.4% |
| 2033 | 954.5 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.5% |
| 2034 | 978 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.5% |
| 2035 | 1,002 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.5% |
| 2036 | 1,027 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.5% |
| 2037 | 1,052 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.4% |
| 2038 | 1,077 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.4% |
| 2039 | 1,104 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.4% |
| 2040 | 1,130 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.4% |
| 2041 | 1,155 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.3% |
| 2042 | 1,181 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.2% |
| 2043 | 1,206 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.2% |
| 2044 | 1,233 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.2% |
| 2045 | 1,259 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.1% |
| 2046 | 1,285 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.1% |
| 2047 | 1,311 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.0% |
| 2048 | 1,337 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.0% |
| 2049 | 1,364 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.0% |
| 2050 | 1,391 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.0% |
| 2051 | 1,418 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.0% |
| 2052 | 1,446 deaths per 1,000 people | +2.0% |
| 2053 | 1,474 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.9% |
| 2054 | 1,502 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.9% |
| 2055 | 1,530 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.9% |
| 2056 | 1,557 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.7% |
| 2057 | 1,584 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.7% |
| 2058 | 1,609 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.6% |
| 2059 | 1,634 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.5% |
| 2060 | 1,656 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.4% |
| 2061 | 1,675 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.2% |
| 2062 | 1,692 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.0% |
| 2063 | 1,707 deaths per 1,000 people | +0.9% |
| 2064 | 1,722 deaths per 1,000 people | +0.9% |
| 2065 | 1,735 deaths per 1,000 people | +0.7% |
| 2066 | 1,746 deaths per 1,000 people | +0.6% |
| 2067 | 1,758 deaths per 1,000 people | +0.6% |
| 2068 | 1,769 deaths per 1,000 people | +0.6% |
| 2069 | 1,780 deaths per 1,000 people | +0.6% |
| 2070 | 1,792 deaths per 1,000 people | +0.7% |
| 2071 | 1,806 deaths per 1,000 people | +0.8% |
| 2072 | 1,822 deaths per 1,000 people | +0.9% |
| 2073 | 1,841 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.0% |
| 2074 | 1,859 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.0% |
| 2075 | 1,880 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.1% |
| 2076 | 1,902 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.2% |
| 2077 | 1,924 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.1% |
| 2078 | 1,947 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.2% |
| 2079 | 1,969 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.1% |
| 2080 | 1,988 deaths per 1,000 people | +1.0% |
| 2081 | 2,005 deaths per 1,000 people | +0.8% |
| 2082 | 2,017 deaths per 1,000 people | +0.6% |
| 2083 | 2,028 deaths per 1,000 people | +0.6% |
| 2084 | 2,035 deaths per 1,000 people | +0.3% |
| 2085 | 2,037 deaths per 1,000 people | +0.1% |
| 2086 | 2,036 deaths per 1,000 people | -0.1% |
| 2087 | 2,034 deaths per 1,000 people | -0.1% |
| 2088 | 2,032 deaths per 1,000 people | -0.1% |
| 2089 | 2,031 deaths per 1,000 people | -0.1% |
| 2090 | 2,029 deaths per 1,000 people | -0.1% |
China compared with similar countries
- China's 2,029 deaths per 1,000 people is above the median for upper middle income countries, which is 1,332 deaths per 1,000 people, 1.5× the median. (58 countries reporting)
- China's 2,029 deaths per 1,000 people is above the median for East Asia & Pacific, which is 1,250 deaths per 1,000 people, 1.6× the median. (37 countries reporting)
Averages by decade
| Decade | Average | Lowest | Highest | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030s | 992.33 deaths per 1,000 people | 888 deaths per 1,000 people | 1,104 deaths per 1,000 people | 10 |
| 2040s | 1,246 deaths per 1,000 people | 1,130 deaths per 1,000 people | 1,364 deaths per 1,000 people | 10 |
| 2050s | 1,514 deaths per 1,000 people | 1,391 deaths per 1,000 people | 1,634 deaths per 1,000 people | 10 |
| 2060s | 1,724 deaths per 1,000 people | 1,656 deaths per 1,000 people | 1,780 deaths per 1,000 people | 10 |
| 2070s | 1,874 deaths per 1,000 people | 1,792 deaths per 1,000 people | 1,969 deaths per 1,000 people | 10 |
| 2080s | 2,024 deaths per 1,000 people | 1,988 deaths per 1,000 people | 2,037 deaths per 1,000 people | 10 |
| 2090s | 2,029 deaths per 1,000 people | 2,029 deaths per 1,000 people | 2,029 deaths per 1,000 people | 1 |
Countries ranked near China
More health data for China
- Un projection of annual infant deaths, annual growth rate -1.15 % change on previous year (2100)
- Heat deaths vs projected death rates, annual growth rate -0.0985 % change on previous year (2090)
- Number of infants who die before age 1 4,642 deaths (2100)
- Neonatal tetanus - number of reported cases, gaps filled 10 (2025)
- Population ages 00-04, female, annual growth rate -8.22 % change on previous year (2025)
- Population ages 00-04, female, per unit of GDP 0 units per US$ of GDP (2025)
- Population ages 00-04, female, per capita 0.0159 units per person (2025)
- Population ages 00-04, male, annual growth rate -8.73 % change on previous year (2025)
- Population ages 00-04, male, per unit of GDP 0 units per US$ of GDP (2025)
- Population ages 00-04, male, per capita 0.0176 units per person (2025)
Frequently asked questions
- What is estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in China?
- Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in China was 2,029 deaths per 1,000 people in 2090, according to UN, World Population Prospects (2024) – processed by Our World in Data.
- What is the highest estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates recorded in China?
- The highest recorded value was 2,037 deaths per 1,000 people in 2085.
- What is the lowest estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates recorded in China?
- The lowest recorded value was 888 deaths per 1,000 people in 2030.
- How does China rank for estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates?
- China ranks 9th out of 236 countries with data for 2090.
- Is estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates rising or falling in China?
- Over the last ten years it is up 2.0%. The long-run trend across the full record is rising.
- Where does this China data come from?
- The figures come from UN, World Population Prospects (2024) – processed by Our World in Data, published as part of Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates. Statizoid updates them automatically from the source API.
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About this data
Number of deaths in a year per 1,000 people in the population. Future projections are based on the UN's medium scenario.