Where does this South Africa data come from?

The figures come from UN, World Population Prospects (2024) – processed by Our World in Data, published as part of Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates. Statizoid updates them automatically from the source API.

Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in South Africa

Name: Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in South Africa
Creator: UN, World Population Prospects (2024) – processed by Our World in Data
License: CC BY 4.0 (Our World in Data)

South Africa: Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates was 1,152 deaths per 1,000 people in 2090. ▲ Rising

Latest (2090)

1,152 deaths per 1,000 people

Change on year

down 0.1%

World rank

132nd

of 236 countries

All-time high

1,165 deaths per 1,000 people

in 2076

All-time low

948.5 deaths per 1,000 people

in 2030

Years of data

2030–2090

Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in South Africa, 2030–2090

Source: UN, World Population Prospects (2024) – processed by Our World in Data. Measured in deaths per 1,000 people.

Analysis

The most recent figure for estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in South Africa is 1,152 deaths per 1,000 people, measured in 2090.

The figure is down 0.1% on the previous year and down 1.0% over ten years.

Over the whole period, estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in South Africa peaked at 1,165 deaths per 1,000 people in 2076 and was at its lowest, 948.5 deaths per 1,000 people, in 2030.

That places South Africa 132nd out of 236 countries with data for 2090, putting it in the middle of the range.

The long-run direction has been consistently rising across the 61 years of available data.

Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in South Africa, year by year

Annual values for Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in South Africa, 2030 to 2090.
Year	deaths per 1,000 people	Change
2030	948.5 deaths per 1,000 people	—
2031	953.8 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.6%
2032	959 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.5%
2033	964.5 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.6%
2034	970.1 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.6%
2035	976.6 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.7%
2036	982.6 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.6%
2037	988.6 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.6%
2038	995.2 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.7%
2039	1,002 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.7%
2040	1,009 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.7%
2041	1,015 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.7%
2042	1,022 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.6%
2043	1,028 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.6%
2044	1,035 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.7%
2045	1,041 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.6%
2046	1,047 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.6%
2047	1,054 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.6%
2048	1,060 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.6%
2049	1,066 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.6%
2050	1,072 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.5%
2051	1,078 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.6%
2052	1,084 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.6%
2053	1,090 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.5%
2054	1,095 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.5%
2055	1,100 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.5%
2056	1,106 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.5%
2057	1,111 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.4%
2058	1,115 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.3%
2059	1,119 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.4%
2060	1,123 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.4%
2061	1,127 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.3%
2062	1,131 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.3%
2063	1,135 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.3%
2064	1,138 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.3%
2065	1,142 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.3%
2066	1,146 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.3%
2067	1,149 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.3%
2068	1,151 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.2%
2069	1,154 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.3%
2070	1,156 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.2%
2071	1,158 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.2%
2072	1,160 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.2%
2073	1,162 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.1%
2074	1,163 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.1%
2075	1,164 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.1%
2076	1,165 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.0%
2077	1,165 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.0%
2078	1,164 deaths per 1,000 people	-0.1%
2079	1,164 deaths per 1,000 people	-0.0%
2080	1,164 deaths per 1,000 people	+0.0%
2081	1,163 deaths per 1,000 people	-0.1%
2082	1,162 deaths per 1,000 people	-0.1%
2083	1,161 deaths per 1,000 people	-0.1%
2084	1,160 deaths per 1,000 people	-0.1%
2085	1,159 deaths per 1,000 people	-0.1%
2086	1,157 deaths per 1,000 people	-0.1%
2087	1,156 deaths per 1,000 people	-0.1%
2088	1,154 deaths per 1,000 people	-0.2%
2089	1,154 deaths per 1,000 people	-0.0%
2090	1,152 deaths per 1,000 people	-0.1%

Averages by decade

Decade	Average	Lowest	Highest	Years
2030s	974.07 deaths per 1,000 people	948.5 deaths per 1,000 people	1,002 deaths per 1,000 people	10
2040s	1,038 deaths per 1,000 people	1,009 deaths per 1,000 people	1,066 deaths per 1,000 people	10
2050s	1,097 deaths per 1,000 people	1,072 deaths per 1,000 people	1,119 deaths per 1,000 people	10
2060s	1,140 deaths per 1,000 people	1,123 deaths per 1,000 people	1,154 deaths per 1,000 people	10
2070s	1,162 deaths per 1,000 people	1,156 deaths per 1,000 people	1,165 deaths per 1,000 people	10
2080s	1,159 deaths per 1,000 people	1,154 deaths per 1,000 people	1,164 deaths per 1,000 people	10
2090s	1,152 deaths per 1,000 people	1,152 deaths per 1,000 people	1,152 deaths per 1,000 people	1

Countries ranked near South Africa

129 United States Virgin Islands 1,158 deaths per 1,000 people compare
130 Jersey 1,155 deaths per 1,000 people compare
131 Bangladesh 1,153 deaths per 1,000 people compare
133 Botswana 1,150 deaths per 1,000 people compare
134 American Samoa 1,150 deaths per 1,000 people compare
135 Burkina Faso 1,142 deaths per 1,000 people compare

See the full ranking of 236 places →

More health data for South Africa

Un projection of annual infant deaths, annual growth rate -2.2 % change on previous year (2100)
Heat deaths vs projected death rates, annual growth rate -0.1386 % change on previous year (2090)
Number of infants who die before age 1 3,333 deaths (2100)
Total tetanus - number of reported cases, gaps filled 22 (2025)
Total tetanus - number of reported cases, per capita 0 units per person (2025)
Diphtheria - number of reported cases, gaps filled 314 (2025)
Diphtheria - number of reported cases, per capita 0 units per person (2025)
Measles - number of reported cases, gaps filled 2,778 (2025)
Measles - number of reported cases, per unit of GDP 0 units per US$ of GDP (2025)
Measles - number of reported cases, per capita 0 units per person (2025)

All data for South Africa →

Frequently asked questions

What is estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in South Africa?: Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in South Africa was 1,152 deaths per 1,000 people in 2090, according to UN, World Population Prospects (2024) – processed by Our World in Data.
What is the highest estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates recorded in South Africa?: The highest recorded value was 1,165 deaths per 1,000 people in 2076.
What is the lowest estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates recorded in South Africa?: The lowest recorded value was 948.5 deaths per 1,000 people in 2030.
How does South Africa rank for estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates?: South Africa ranks 132nd out of 236 countries with data for 2090.
Is estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates rising or falling in South Africa?: Over the last ten years it is down 1.0%. The long-run trend across the full record is rising.
Where does this South Africa data come from?: The figures come from UN, World Population Prospects (2024) – processed by Our World in Data, published as part of Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates. Statizoid updates them automatically from the source API.

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Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates in South Africa. Statizoid, drawing on UN, World Population Prospects (2024) – processed by Our World in Data. Retrieved 31 August 2026, from https://health.statizoid.com/stat/heat-deaths-vs-projected-death-rates/south-africa/

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About this data

Indicator: Estimated changes in temperature-related death rates compared to projected death rates
Unit: deaths per 1,000 people
Source: UN, World Population Prospects (2024) – processed by Our World in Data
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (Our World in Data)
Coverage: 236 places, 14,396 data points, 2030–2090
Last refreshed: 28 August 2026

Number of deaths in a year per 1,000 people in the population. Future projections are based on the UN's medium scenario.