Statizoid

Under-five deaths - Current trends maintained (projection) by country

Countries reporting
198
Highest
883,711
Nigeria
Lowest
1
Niue
Median
1,332
Years covered
6
2025–2030
Data points
1,272

What the numbers show

Under-five deaths - Current trends maintained (projection) is currently reported for 198 countries. The highest value is 883,711 in Nigeria; the lowest is 1 in Niue.

The median across all reporting countries is 1,332, and the mean is 22,044.

Over the past decade 17 countries rose and 172 fell. The largest increase was in South Sudan (up 11.9%), and the largest decrease in Nauru (down 50.0%).

Under-five deaths - Current trends maintained: full country ranking

#Country LatestYear 10-year changeTrend
1 Nigeria 883,711 2030 up 2.7% flat
2 India 433,791 2030 down 25.3% falling
3 Democratic Republic of the Congo 420,301 2030 up 7.2% rising
4 Pakistan 326,650 2030 down 11.9% falling
5 Ethiopia 150,211 2030 down 14.6% falling
6 Niger 121,621 2030 up 1.8% flat
7 Bangladesh 86,067 2030 down 15.9% falling
8 Uganda 76,743 2030 down 6.1% falling
9 United Republic of Tanzania 75,255 2030 down 10.7% falling
10 Chad 74,792 2030 down 6.5% falling
11 Somalia 71,962 2030 down 7.2% falling
12 Mozambique 70,060 2030 down 4.8% flat
13 Sudan 68,952 2030 down 9.5% falling
14 Afghanistan 67,706 2030 down 11.2% falling
15 Angola 64,448 2030 down 3.1% flat
16 Madagascar 63,786 2030 up 2.3% flat
17 Indonesia 59,369 2030 down 21.3% falling
18 Mali 58,996 2030 down 11.5% falling
19 Côte d'Ivoire 57,045 2030 down 8.7% falling
20 Kenya 55,611 2030 down 3.8% flat
21 Cameroon 53,878 2030 down 10.4% falling
22 Egypt 50,344 2030 down 5.8% falling
23 Philippines 47,824 2030 down 1.0% flat
24 Burkina Faso 46,714 2030 down 11.4% falling
25 Yemen 46,671 2030 down 9.6% falling
26 Guinea 40,277 2030 down 8.0% falling
27 South Africa 37,174 2030 down 8.7% falling
28 South Sudan 37,133 2030 up 11.9% rising
29 Zimbabwe 33,428 2030 up 5.0% flat
30 China (People’s Republic of) 32,366 2030 down 33.1% falling
31 Malawi 32,017 2030 down 0.6% flat
32 Benin 31,969 2030 down 8.0% falling
33 Zambia 31,454 2030 down 3.8% flat
34 Brazil 30,780 2030 down 13.8% falling
35 Ghana 25,731 2030 down 15.9% falling
36 Myanmar 25,637 2030 down 19.3% falling
37 United States 23,325 2030 down 1.1% flat
38 Mexico 22,270 2030 down 13.3% falling
39 Iraq 22,257 2030 down 10.5% falling
40 Central African Republic 20,423 2030 down 1.3% flat
41 Viet Nam 19,052 2030 down 17.1% falling
42 Sierra Leone 18,899 2030 down 15.7% falling
43 Burundi 18,280 2030 down 12.7% falling
44 Senegal 16,865 2030 down 10.7% falling
45 Algeria 15,567 2030 down 16.4% falling
46 Liberia 14,723 2030 up 1.1% flat
47 Togo 14,294 2030 down 9.4% falling
48 Rwanda 13,742 2030 down 6.5% falling
49 Syrian Arab Republic 11,883 2030 up 11.6% rising
50 Haiti 11,205 2030 down 14.8% falling
51 Nepal 9,992 2030 down 25.3% falling
52 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 9,616 2030 down 22.9% falling
53 Uzbekistan 8,904 2030 down 24.2% falling
54 Papua New Guinea 8,486 2030 down 13.1% falling
55 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 8,288 2030 up 2.1% flat
56 Türkiye 7,865 2030 down 20.2% falling
57 Morocco 7,297 2030 down 22.1% falling
58 Tajikistan 6,731 2030 down 8.9% falling
59 Congo 6,717 2030 down 7.2% falling
60 Guatemala 6,322 2030 down 15.7% falling
61 Colombia 6,284 2030 down 19.3% falling
62 Mauritania 5,799 2030 down 7.6% falling
63 Peru 5,709 2030 down 15.3% falling
64 Dominican Republic 5,361 2030 down 11.1% falling
65 Turkmenistan 5,132 2030 down 14.6% falling
66 Russia 4,729 2030 down 24.9% falling
67 Cambodia 4,643 2030 down 25.4% falling
68 Democratic People's Republic of Korea 4,337 2030 down 21.0% falling
69 Argentina 4,279 2030 down 9.3% falling
70 Thailand 4,122 2030 down 18.2% falling
71 Guinea-Bissau 3,692 2030 down 12.0% falling
72 Malaysia 3,663 2030 up 0.8% flat
73 Lao People's Democratic Republic 3,469 2030 down 23.4% falling
74 Equatorial Guinea 3,301 2030 down 10.2% falling
75 Kazakhstan 3,144 2030 down 15.5% falling
76 United Kingdom 3,100 2030 down 2.5% flat
77 Eritrea 3,089 2030 down 7.7% falling
78 Ecuador 3,073 2030 down 9.7% falling
79 Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 2,891 2030 down 25.1% falling
80 Honduras 2,832 2030 down 16.2% falling
81 Lesotho 2,829 2030 down 12.1% falling
82 Gambia 2,823 2030 down 15.6% falling
83 France 2,753 2030 down 1.2% flat
84 Namibia 2,649 2030 down 11.4% falling
85 Saudi Arabia 2,603 2030 down 17.2% falling
86 Jordan 2,554 2030 down 13.3% falling
87 Germany 2,444 2030 down 8.2% falling
88 Kyrgyzstan 2,069 2030 down 15.1% falling
89 Canada 1,935 2030 down 0.9% flat
90 Gabon 1,886 2030 down 12.9% falling
91 Azerbaijan 1,848 2030 down 14.0% falling
92 Paraguay 1,764 2030 down 17.9% falling
93 Japan 1,744 2030 down 4.8% flat
94 Lebanon 1,656 2030 up 1.6% flat
95 Ukraine 1,614 2030 down 1.2% flat
96 Botswana 1,585 2030 down 19.1% falling
97 State of Palestine 1,554 2030 down 16.0% falling
98 Sri Lanka 1,465 2030 down 18.7% falling
99 Tunisia 1,392 2030 down 26.4% falling
100 Timor-Leste 1,273 2030 down 9.9% falling
101 Nicaragua 1,141 2030 down 19.8% falling
102 Eswatini 1,113 2030 down 13.3% falling
103 Romania 1,077 2030 down 16.4% falling
104 Australia 1,052 2030 down 3.7% flat
105 Chile 1,036 2030 down 9.6% falling
106 Poland 1,009 2030 down 20.7% falling
107 Panama 1,007 2030 down 6.5% falling
108 Djibouti 996 2030 down 13.2% falling
109 Spain 986 2030 down 6.5% falling
110 Italy 938 2030 down 8.5% falling
110 Libya 938 2030 down 18.4% falling
112 Oman 873 2030 down 2.7% flat
113 Comoros 835 2030 down 9.7% falling
114 Cuba 765 2030 down 5.6% falling
115 El Salvador 738 2030 down 22.2% falling
116 Netherlands 686 2030 up 2.5% flat
117 Korea 630 2030 down 5.7% falling
118 Mongolia 617 2030 down 24.0% falling
119 Israel 538 2030 down 4.9% falling
120 Costa Rica 511 2030 down 3.9% flat
121 Jamaica 508 2030 down 10.7% falling
122 United Arab Emirates 471 2030 down 4.7% flat
123 Fiji 467 2030 down 2.9% flat
124 Republic of Moldova 462 2030 down 11.3% falling
125 Solomon Islands 402 2030 down 5.9% falling
126 Kuwait 392 2030 up 1.3% flat
127 Belgium 361 2030 down 5.0% falling
128 Guyana 325 2030 down 19.0% falling
129 Georgia 297 2030 down 17.5% falling
130 Switzerland 283 2030 down 10.7% falling
131 Slovak Republic 280 2030 down 12.2% falling
132 Serbia 266 2030 down 15.0% falling
133 Hungary 262 2030 down 15.2% falling
134 Bulgaria 258 2030 down 23.4% falling
135 Portugal 249 2030 down 8.1% falling
136 Trinidad and Tobago 240 2030 down 17.0% falling
137 New Zealand 239 2030 down 12.5% falling
138 Greece 234 2030 down 12.7% falling
139 Austria 229 2030 down 9.5% falling
140 Denmark 228 2030 down 1.7% flat
141 Armenia 220 2030 down 32.1% falling
142 Uruguay 217 2030 down 10.7% falling
143 Sweden 215 2030 down 8.5% falling
144 Albania 212 2030 down 17.2% falling
145 Ireland 207 2030 up 1.5% flat
146 Czechia 196 2030 down 15.5% falling
147 Qatar 190 2030 up 11.8% rising
148 Bahrain 180 2030 up 5.3% rising
149 Kiribati 167 2030 down 6.2% falling
150 Mauritius 165 2030 down 7.3% falling
151 Vanuatu 149 2030 down 2.6% flat
152 Suriname 142 2030 down 14.5% falling
153 Singapore 136 2030 up 3.8% flat
154 Bosnia and Herzegovina 130 2030 down 8.5% falling
155 Belarus 127 2030 down 13.6% falling
156 Croatia 126 2030 down 9.4% falling
157 Norway 124 2030 down 4.6% flat
158 Kosovo (UNSCR 1244) 121 2030 down 26.2% falling
159 Bhutan 118 2030 down 26.2% falling
160 Finland 101 2030 down 2.9% flat
161 Belize 80 2030 down 13.0% falling
162 Samoa 71 2030 down 10.1% falling
163 Sao Tome and Principe 66 2030 down 21.4% falling
164 Cyprus 64 2030 down 9.9% falling
165 Lithuania 60 2030 down 17.8% falling
166 Brunei Darussalam 53 2030 down 11.7% falling
167 Cabo Verde 50 2030 down 25.4% falling
168 Bahamas 48 2030 down 9.4% falling
169 Micronesia (Federated States of) 46 2030 down 16.4% falling
170 North Macedonia 36 2030 down 16.3% falling
171 Slovenia 34 2030 down 12.8% falling
172 Saint Lucia 29 2030 down 14.7% falling
173 Latvia 27 2030 down 20.6% falling
174 Barbados 25 2030 down 16.7% falling
175 Seychelles 24 2030 unchanged flat
176 Dominica 23 2030 down 11.5% falling
177 Grenada 22 2030 down 8.3% falling
178 Maldives 20 2030 down 28.6% falling
179 Tonga 19 2030 down 13.6% falling
180 Malta 18 2030 down 18.2% falling
181 Estonia 17 2030 down 22.7% falling
182 Luxembourg 15 2030 unchanged flat
183 Marshall Islands 14 2030 down 30.0% falling
183 Montenegro 14 2030 down 12.5% falling
185 Iceland 12 2030 unchanged flat
186 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 11 2030 down 15.4% falling
187 Antigua and Barbuda 8 2030 down 20.0% falling
188 Saint Kitts and Nevis 7 2030 down 12.5% falling
189 Palau 4 2030 unchanged flat
190 Tuvalu 3 2030 down 25.0% falling
190 British Virgin Islands 3 2030 down 25.0% falling
192 Turks and Caicos Islands 2 2030 unchanged flat
193 Andorra 1 2030 unchanged flat
193 Monaco 1 2030 unchanged flat
193 Nauru 1 2030 down 50.0% falling
193 Anguilla 1 2030 unchanged flat
193 Cook Islands 1 2030 down 50.0% falling
193 Niue 1 2030 unchanged flat

Regions and income groups

Aggregates are excluded from the country ranking above so that a region can never outrank a country.

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Under-five deaths - Current trends maintained by country. Statizoid, drawing on UNICEF. Retrieved 21 August 2026, from https://health.statizoid.com/stat/under-five-deaths-current-trends-maintained-projection/

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About this data

Indicator
Under-five deaths - Current trends maintained (projection)
Source
UNICEF
Licence
UNICEF Terms of Use (attribution required)
Coverage
212 places, 1,272 data points, 2025–2030
Last refreshed